Syria

Key Issues

The Syrian Civil War

Since its start, the Syrian war has reached a number of stalemates, only to experience another escalation usually as the result of an influx of external force. Two years into the war, in September 2013, the Assad regime called for a ceasefire with the opposition, after the country had experienced over 100,00 deaths as well as a $100 billion economic loss due to the absence of normal production during the war. 

The first of the Geneva talks took place in June 2012 and lasted only a day. While the US and Russia were both involved in the Geneva 2 talks, the Syrian regime took issue with the US position to give the Syrian National Coalition (SNC) the primary role as the delegation of the opposition. The SNC, for its part, refused to take part in the Geneva II talks unless Assad agreed to resign. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/19/syrian-government-civil-war-stalemate?CMP=twt_gu) The Assad regime also refused to negotiate with the rebels unless they first laid down their arms and insisted that the only solution to the conflict was a political solution. (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-crisis-experts/destruction-of-syrian-chemical-weapons-begins-mission-idUSBRE99508920131006?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&dlvrit=992637) 

As Ali Al-Dabbagh stated at Brookings Doha on September 9, 2013, "the fall of Assad isn't the real threat to Syria. The biggest threat is the lack of a clear alternative." 

On September 30, 2013, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Maullem told the United Nations during the General Assembly that "terrorists from more than 83 countries" were attacking their country. Indeed, an al Qaeda branch from Iraq called the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) had taken over parts of northern and eastern Syria in the preceding weeks. In an effort to counter these forces, the Saudis consolidated some fifty Salafist Sunni rebel groups into a single force called the Army of Islam under the command of a Saudi-backed leader. In contrast to ISIL, which was comprised primarily of foreign jihadis with the goal of uniting Muslims into a single caliphate, the Salafi were fighting for a Syria under Islamist rule. The Saudi-backed Army of Islam refused to work in concert with the Syrian National Coalition (SNC), a Western- and Saudi- backed rebel alliance. (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-crisis-jihadists-insight/insight-saudi-arabia-boosts-salafist-rivals-to-al-qaeda-in-syria-idUSBRE9900RO20131001)

On the same day, US President Obama asked French President Hollande to halt a Western-allied attack on Syria, after the Assad regime committed to the destruction of its chemical weapons under international monitoring and verification following an August 21 chemical attack in rebel-held suburbs east of Damascus. (http://www.israelhayom.com/2017/07/23/report-obama-put-the-brakes-on-hollandes-syria-attack/) Although UN investigation "indirectly implicated" the Syrian government for the attack, the Assad regime maintained that the attack had been carried out by rebels, citing evidence that while the rockets were Soviet-made, they could be traced back to a shipment from Russia to Libya in the 1970s that had subsequently been shipped to the rebels in Syria, filled with chemicals from Libya. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/19/syrian-government-civil-war-stalemate?CMP=twt_gu) 

By November 2013, it was clear to Syrians on both sides of the civil war that one way or the other, the Assad regime was there to stay. The US-backed coalition refused to come to the negotiation table unless Assad agreed to resign, and to the Syrians, this approach was stalling any possible progress toward peace. The Assad regime was making military gains on the ground, and the proposition that he would agree to resign seemed out of reach. The perception on the ground was that the US policy position that "Assad must go" was unrealistic and outdated, and that an ending to the war could only be found through a political solution that involved the Assad regime. (https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/09/world/middleeast/syrians-and-observers-increasingly-see-assad-as-likely-to-stay.html?smid=tw-share)

In February 2014, Geneva II predictably came and went with little progress, as both sides refused to compromise on the issue of leadership. The Assad regime refused to go anywhere, and the opposition refused to accept any government that involved the regime. (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-crisis-brahimi/mediator-apologizes-to-syrians-for-lack-of-peace-progress-idUSBREA1E0G220140215)

On February 22, 2014, the UN Security Council passed a resolution demanding that humanitarian agencies be granted unrestricted access to civilians, with potential further action for noncompliance. (https://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/24/world/middleeast/syrian-aid.html?_r=0)

References

Steele, Jonathan. "Syrian government says war has reached stalemate," Guardian, September 19, 2013. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/19/syrian-government-civil-war-stalemate?CMP=twt_gu)

Karouny, Miriam. "Destruction of Syrian chemical weapons begins: mission," Reuters, October 6, 2013. (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-crisis-experts/destruction-of-syrian-chemical-weapons-begins-mission-idUSBRE99508920131006?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&dlvrit=992637) 

Oweis, Khaled Yacoub. "Insight: Saudi Arabia boosts Salafist rivals to al Qaeda in Syria," Reuters, October 1, 2013. (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-crisis-jihadists-insight/insight-saudi-arabia-boosts-salafist-rivals-to-al-qaeda-in-syria-idUSBRE9900RO20131001)

Leon, Eli. "Report: Obama put the brakes on Hollande's Syria attack," Israel Hayom, July 14, 2018. (http://www.israelhayom.com/2017/07/23/report-obama-put-the-brakes-on-hollandes-syria-attack/ 

Bernard, Anne. "Syrians on both sides of the war increasingly see Assad as likely to stay," The New York Times, November 8, 2013. (https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/09/world/middleeast/syrians-and-observers-increasingly-see-assad-as-likely-to-stay.html?smid=tw-share) 

Holmes, Oliver, and Miles, Tom. "Mediator apologizes to Syrians for lack of progress," Reuters, February 15, 2014. (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-crisis-brahimi/mediator-apologizes-to-syrians-for-lack-of-peace-progress-idUSBREA1E0G220140215)

Cumming-Bruce, Nick. “Diplomatic efforts on Syria have failed, UN Chiefs say,” The New York Times, April 23, 2014. (https://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/24/world/middleeast/syrian-aid.html?_r=0)

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